Nielsen et al. 2014, Excessive weekly distance progression and injury

Prospective study of 874 novice runners using GPS watches, grouped by weekly distance progression (<10% or regression, 10-30%, >30%). Runners who progressed by more than 30% in a week had more distance-related injuries than those who stayed under 10%, but the effect varied by injury type and the cautious 10% schedule was a reference rather than a proven shield. Moderate (the popular ‘10% rule’ has weak direct support).